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    New Alignments? The Geopolitics of Gas and Oil Cartels and the Changing Middle East

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    Author
    Fang, Songying; Jaffe, Amy Myers; Temzelides, Ted
    Date
    2012
    Abstract
    We analyze the likelihood of different coalitions emerging in energy markets in light of two new transformational events: the Arab Awakening and the rise of shale gas in the United States. Our analysis considers both economic and political payouts resulting from alternative energy policies of three major petro-powers: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Qatar. We discuss the likelihood of price wars in energy markets and identify two conditions under which price wars can occur. There can be a price war in the gas market if Russia is determined to protect its market share in Europe by knocking out other higher cost producers. We find that competitive pressures created by shale gas could make this option more appealing to Russia. Second, Saudi Arabia can generate an oil price war as a foreign policy tool in order to weaken Iran’s position as a rival to the Kingdom. Finally, we consider the recent democratization movement in the Middle East. Significant changes in geopolitical payouts may bring about new coalitions involving Russia. Nevertheless, we find that a gas cartel is unlikely to form in the perceivable future.
    Citation
    Fang, Songying, Jaffe, Amy Myers and Temzelides, Ted. "New Alignments? The Geopolitics of Gas and Oil Cartels and the Changing Middle East." (2012) James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University: http://bakerinstitute.org/research/new-alignments-the-geopolitics-of-gas-and-oil-cartels-and-the-changing-middle-east/.
    Type
    Research paper
    Publisher
    James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University
    Citable link to this page
    https://hdl.handle.net/1911/91331
    Link to related resources
    http://bakerinstitute.org/research/new-alignments-the-geopolitics-of-gas-and-oil-cartels-and-the-changing-middle-east/
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    Home | FAQ | Contact Us | Privacy Notice | Accessibility Statement
    Managed by the Digital Scholarship Services at Fondren Library, Rice University
    Physical Address: 6100 Main Street, Houston, Texas 77005
    Mailing Address: MS-44, P.O.BOX 1892, Houston, Texas 77251-1892
    Site Map