Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorBala, Ramkumar
Reiff, Patricia
Russell, C.T.
dc.date.accessioned 2016-06-24T21:35:01Z
dc.date.available 2016-06-24T21:35:01Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.citation Bala, Ramkumar, Reiff, Patricia and Russell, C.T.. "Testing the estimated hypothetical response of a major CME impact on Earth and its implications to space weather." Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 120, no. 5 (2015) Wiley: 3432-3443. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020739.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/90564
dc.description.abstractThe high-speed coronal mass ejection (CME), ejected on 23 July 2012, observed by STEREO-A on the same day as the leading edge of the CME arrived at 1AU was unique both in respect to the observed plasma and magnetic structure and the large solar energetic particle flux that dynamically regulated the shock front. Because of its great intensity, it has been hailed as “Carrington 2” by some, warning that, had that CME been heading toward the Earth, it might have caused a major space weather event. We used the Rice Artificial Neural Network algorithms with the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters measured in situ by STEREO-A as inputs to infer what the “geoeffectiveness” of that storm might have been. We have also used an MHD model in Open Geospace General Circulation Model to understand the global magnetospheric process in time sequence. We presently show our neural network models of Kp and Dst on our real-time prediction site: http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html. Running this event through our models showed that, in fact, this would have been an exceptional event. Our results show a prediction resulting in a Kp value of 8+, a Dst of nearly −250 nT, but when assumptions about maximum dipole angle tilt and density are made, predictions resulting in Kp of 11− and Dst dipping close to −700 nT are found. Finally, when solar energetic proton flux is included, the Kp and Dst predictions drop to 8− and ≈−625 nT, respectively.
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Wiley
dc.rights Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
dc.title Testing the estimated hypothetical response of a major CME impact on Earth and its implications to space weather
dc.type Journal article
dc.citation.journalTitle Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
dc.citation.volumeNumber 120
dc.citation.issueNumber 5
dc.type.dcmi Text
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020739
dc.type.publication publisher version
dc.citation.firstpage 3432
dc.citation.lastpage 3443


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record