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dc.contributor.advisor Thompson, James R.
dc.creatorDeines, Jason
dc.date.accessioned 2009-06-04T08:41:44Z
dc.date.available 2009-06-04T08:41:44Z
dc.date.issued 2005
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1911/17767
dc.description.abstract Experimental results suggest that significant improvements in forecast performance can be obtained by applying the simulated annealing on probability arrays (SAPA) algorithm to grouped event probability forecasts. Such forecasts are frequently probabilistically incoherent, even when elicited expert subjects. The algorithm corrects any incoherence within the set of responses from each subject, while at the same time minimizing the sum of the absolute adjustments made to the original probability estimates. These adjusted coherent probability estimates appear to yield improved overall forecast performance, as measured by several different metrics. However, with the only published results consisting of several small experiments, definitive conclusions regarding potential forecast improvements in wider applications are difficult to justify. To address this lack of experimental data, a method for extending the existing published results using simulation is described, and the SAPA algorithm and its effects on forecast performance are examined.
dc.format.extent 45 p.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.subjectStatistics
Computer science
dc.title Using simulation to assess prediction performance change with simulated annealing on probability arrays
dc.type.genre Thesis
dc.type.material Text
thesis.degree.department Statistics
thesis.degree.discipline Engineering
thesis.degree.grantor Rice University
thesis.degree.level Masters
thesis.degree.name Master of Arts
dc.identifier.citation Deines, Jason. "Using simulation to assess prediction performance change with simulated annealing on probability arrays." (2005) Master’s Thesis, Rice University. https://hdl.handle.net/1911/17767.


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