Dynamic reciprocity in negotiations: The Sino-British talks on Hong Kong
Dougherty, Sean Michael
Stoll, Richard J.
Master of Arts
Building on earlier reciprocity research in arms control negotiations by Stoll and McAndrew (1986) and Druckman and Harris (1990), this study evaluates various models of cooperative and inverse reciprocity in a independent environment: the Sino-British negotiations regarding the future of Hong Kong. Coding of concessions and retractions is based on a wide range of news and government sources using methods developed by Jensen (1988). Both the trend model and the comparative reciprocity model are supported, albeit inconsistently. Statistical analysis of model predictions suggests the mixed use of cooperative and inverse strategies. A combined "hybrid" model nets support comparable to the trend and comparative models. While evidence of reciprocity is demonstrated in this study, to better understand the dynamics of parties' interactions, more studies of negotiation behavior need to be conducted which can systematically incorporate dominant aggregate contextual variables.