Progress against cancer: A new measure
Brauner, Christopher Mark
Master of Arts
Measures of the impact of cancer on survival are often incomplete, and are subject to biases which cloud the assessment of progress against the disease. A new measure, the proportion diagnosed with cancer and dead by a particular age, is proposed. This measure incorporates incidence, survival, and mortality, and improves upon other measures in several ways. The measure is examined separately by sex/race combinations for three periods of diagnosis. To calculate the measure, long-term survival must be known or estimated. Only a limited period of followup is available for the population studied; therefore, a model expressing survival time as a function of age and diagnosis period is sought. The accelerated failure model is considered, but is poor at predicting later survival from early experience. Estimation is accomplished by projecting short-term survival experience from early diagnosis periods to later periods, and using the accelerated failure model to predict long-term survival.