Statistical modelling of dynamic auroral fluxes
Shade, John William
Freeman, John W., Jr.
Master of Science
In order to obtain a better understanding of auroral processes, statistical models have been formulated that characterize the spatial dependences of the aurora. These efforts include the Hardy probability model, the Hardy average model, and the Evans average model. Each differs in its technical approach but all three attempt to characterize electron energy fluxes at any given location in the auroral zone. In an attempt to describe the limitations of each model and perhaps make suggestions on how one can improve them, we reduced a six month sampling of DMSP-F2 electron precipitation data and averaged values over four second time intervals. Then each model generated a flux value for comparison against these satellite measurements so that Chi-square tests could be performed. Also the mean values for the whole six month period were calculated in order to determine the normalcy of the period tested. It is hoped that the knowledge gained through this endeavor will improve the accuracy of the Magnetospheric Specification Model's forecasts of the fluxes that endanger spacecraft.