Structural changes in Colombian employment 1951-1968
Candelo, Ricardo J.
Master of Arts
The Colombian economy has undergone a substantial change in the structure of employment during the period 1951-1968. The concern of this thesis is the apportion changes in employment which have occurred during this period to changes in a number of variables which could have important implications in the evaluation of alternative policies. Changes in employment have been attributed to the following factors: changes in final domestic, intermediate, and export demand, import substitution and changes in technology. The years 1951 and 1968 can be taken as end points of a definite period in Colombian development. This period is characterized by (a) import substituting industrialization and the beginning of the production of capital goods; (b) the mechanization of agriculture; and (c) a sharp increase of employment in the service sector, with very small gains in productivity. Since 1968, Colombian development has been oriented by a new strategy which places greater emphasis on the promotion of exports, and by Colombian membership in the Andean Group. A methodology is developed in the thesis which incorporates several different methods used in previous studies on the subject. The main conclusions of this thesis are that (a) employment growth has been principally due to changes in final domestic demand. During the period 1951 - 1968 intermediate and export demand had only limited effects; (b) changes in technology (especially in agriculture and manufacturing) had marked negative effects on employment growth; and (c) changes due to import substitution did not cause much growth in employment.